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Hodnocení vlivu devizových intervencí ČNB na export České republiky
Prejdová, Jana
This paper is studying forex interventions implemented by the Czech national bank since November 2013 and their effects on the Czech Republic's export. The area of interest of this paper is the period since 2005 to January 2016. The first section of the bachelor thesis studies monetary policy and foreign trade of the Czech Republic in the period of focus. Next part focuses on the change in strategy of central banks after the global financial crisis and theoretic findings of the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-Curve for foreign trade. In the second main section of this paper there are estimated import and export elasticities using Mandel's (1994) methodology. The elasticities are later used to determine if the Marshall-Lerner condition is met in the studied period for the trade between the Czech Republic and its main trading partners.
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Forex interventions of CNB in front of the door to Eurozone
Kadlec, Tomáš
Kadlec, T. Forex interventions of CNF in front of the door to Eurozone. Di-ploma thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2015. This thesis study the foreign exchange intervention of Czech National Bank, launched in November 2013. Under the circumstances have been chosen to use the Marshall-Lerner condition which finds the economy suitable for cur-rency devaluation or not. For reach this goal have been calculated regression analysis with two alternative results for calculating the condition. In the first alternative, full Marshall-Lerner equation, could not be satisfaction of condi-tion proven, but nor was dissatisfaction. In the second one, where was import of Czech Republic calculated with zero value according to regression analysis result, was the condition satisfied. Results have been compared with numbers from United Kingdom and found opposed. In comparison to Slovak Republic was found Czech development of macroeconomic indicators better.
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Is import of goods from european countries to Czech republic more or less influenced by changes in nominal and real exchange rates than in non european countries?
Vereš, Jan ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Slaný, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the connection between import of goods from foreign countries to Czech Republic and the exchange rate changes. The initial hypothesis of this paper is to prove that the depreciation of domestic currency has positive influence on balance of trade balance. For this purpose there is eight econometric models which were created by using time series from years 2003 to 2016. These models are divided in pairs among four chosen countries. For each country two models were created that follow the development of trade balance between Czech Republic and one of the countries in two different time frames. All the models always use the real effective exchange rate, growth rate of GDP for Czech Republic and growth rate of GDP for one of the countries as explanatory variable. It is connected with the second task of this thesis, which is the analysis of the differences in the behaviour of the models that belong to the countries which are members of the EU and these that are not. The aim is to find out whether the existence of tariffs on imported goods from countries out of the EU causes visible differences in the behaviour of the variables that were included in the models. Based on the outcomes of all eight models the main hypothesis has been proved right for three out of four countries. In the models for Germany, China and France the relation of real exchange rate and trade balance came out as positive in long term, in short term the outcome was ambiguous. The second question of this thesis has been answered, but its added value is questionable. The final models for each state do show some noticeable differences and they can be used to determine if the influence of the change of exchange rates on trade balance is smaller or bigger in the countries where tariffs are used. On the other hand, from the results we can learn that the sample of only four countries is insufficient for the deduction of any conclusions.
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Impact of Czech National Bank´s foreign exchange intervention on the trade balance of the Czech Republic
Blumtritt, Jakub ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Jiránková, Martina (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to analyze and evaluate the effect of the Czech National Bank´s foreign exchange intervention on the trade balance of the Czech Republic. For this purpose a hypothesis was set, that in the short-term the devaluation of the Czech currency causes deterioration of the trade balance and only after some time has passed the trade balance starts to grow. In theory this effect is known as the J-curve hypothesis. The first chapter summarizes theoretical knowledge about monetary policy and exchange rate theory. The second chapter analyzes the development of commodity and territorial structure of the Czech trade balance from 2000 to 2013. The third chapter focuses on the foreign exchange intervention itself and provides arguments for and against this measure taken by the Czech National Bank. The fourth chapter is the most important one for acceptance or rejection of the hypothesis set. It uses the Vector Error Correction Model to estimate the impact of devaluation on the trade balance of Czech Republic with Germany. Subsequently outcomes of this model are compared to the real statistical data of Czech trade.
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Forex interventions of CNB in front of the door to Eurozone
Kadlec, Tomáš
Kadlec, T. Forex interventions of CNF in front of the door to Eurozone. Di-ploma thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2015. This thesis study the foreign exchange intervention of Czech National Bank, launched in November 2013. Under the circumstances have been chosen to use the Marshall-Lerner condition which finds the economy suitable for cur-rency devaluation or not. For reach this goal have been calculated regression analysis with two alternative results for calculating the condition. In the first alternative, full Marshall-Lerner equation, could not be satisfaction of condi-tion proven, but nor was dissatisfaction. In the second one, where was import of Czech Republic calculated with zero value according to regression analysis result, was the condition satisfied. Results have been compared with numbers from United Kingdom and found opposed. In comparison to Slovak Republic was found Czech development of macroeconomic indicators better.
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